Countries such as Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey could profit as rising wages in central Europe compel manufacturers to look outside the continent.
In the last five years, unemployment has roughly halved from Estonia to Poland, says Renaissance Capital, an investment firm specialising in emerging markets.
“Never again is Central Europe likely to offer what it did in the 1990s: the best combination globally of high education, low cost and high labour supply,” says the report. “The next wave of investment into industrial sectors may have to go a little farther afield.”
The company predicts north Africa and Turkey will benefit from offshoring because employment rates and wages are relatively low.
“We have already been positively surprised by the extent to which Morocco now rivals CE3 [the Central European three: Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary] as an investment choice for French firms,” says the report. “Wages seem to be much lower and should not face the same upward pressure.”
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