Despite the efforts of President Trump, the US will not scrap its nuclear deal with Iran, according to a new prediction.
The deal is likely to survive because Iran is weak and would rather offer concessions than lose the benefits of the agreement, which was signed by the Obama administration and sought to limit Iran’s nuclear capability in exchange for sanctions relief.
“Two changes in the Middle East foreign policy environment potentially reduce the room for manoeuvre for Iran,” said Hasnain Malik of Exotix Partners, a frontier market investment firm. These are the souring of relations with the US and Saudi Arabia’s recent detente with Russia.
“In the near term, both factors threaten President Rouhani’s efforts to shift from the isolated, ‘resistance’ economy to one where foreign direct investment and non-oil trading links are reopened commercially with the EU and US,” he said.
Malik said there could be a rise in oil prices in the immediate future as markets anticipate a loss of Iranian supply, but he predicted such price moves would be temporary.
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